National Day Air Conditioning sales are expected to reach 2.6 million units

Yikang, a professional research organization, predicts that during the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, the national air conditioner sales volume will be 2.6 million units, down 9% year-on-year. Under the pressure of new energy efficiency standards to be implemented, enterprises will speed up inventory inventories. Current and second-level inverter air conditioners under the current standards will become the focus of pre-holiday promotions for manufacturers, and sales volume may account for more than 45% of the total.

Benefiting from the relatively low market base in the same period, the rebound in the real estate market and the increase in corporate sales promotion activities under the energy-saving and livelihood-friendly policies, air-conditioning retail sales increased significantly by 28.0% in the first half of 2013, and retail sales increased by 32.6%, outperforming the overall appliance market. The increase of 3% in the overall average price in the first half of the year was a major bright spot in the air-conditioning market. The continuous increase in the proportion of inverter air conditioners and the subsidy of out-of-price subsidies were the main reasons for the increase in the overall average price.

Yi Ting analyst Shi Ting believes that a fundamental reason for the rise in air-conditioning prices is the upgrading of product features, intrinsic value enhancement, consumption upgrades, upgrading demand, a multi-machine, set purchase trend has become mainstream, new housing, second-hand housing The growth of transactions, the newly-married just-in-demand, and the increase in the penetration rate of the rural market have all contributed to the huge demand for air-conditioning products.

In the first half of the year, the ultra-high growth of e-commerce channels is another highlight. According to the data from China Yikang, the number of air-conditioner retail stores increased by 8.9% year-on-year, the number of home appliance channels increased by 17.6%, supermarket channels increased by 21.4%, and e-commerce channels achieved a high growth rate of 111.0%. The share of retail sales of air conditioners will increase from 3.0% last year to 7.6%.

At present, there is still a big difference between the online product structure and the offline market, and the offline inverter air conditioner has occupied an absolute dominant position, while the share of online variable frequency air conditioner retail sales is only 32.7%, but the increase rate is as high as 179.9%. With the rapid growth of online frequency conversion products, the online and offline product structure will gradually converge, and the proportion of frequency conversion products will continue to increase.

Under the impact of online low channel pricing strategy, offline channels have increased promotional efforts, online competition is gradually withdrawing from the price war, and the overall market online and offline air-conditioning spreads narrowed. The gradual elimination of price barriers is the first step in the integration of online and offline channels for home appliances. At the same time, the focus of online channel competition will also shift from price to logistics and after-sales service.

The air-conditioning market experienced an increase in both volume and price in the first half of the year. With the closing of the cold year in 2013, the air-conditioning volume in July achieved a slight increase of 0.4% and 2.9% respectively. Zhongyekang expects the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day period to have a national air-conditioning sales volume. It was 2.6 million units, down 9% year-on-year. Under the pressure of the implementation of new energy efficiency standards, enterprises will speed up inventory inventories. The current standard of second- and third-level inverter air conditioners will become the focus of pre-holiday promotions for manufacturers; sales will account for more than 45% of the total; while online and offline The promotion period will also be earlier than in previous years. The physical store promotion will advance to the beginning of September. Online promotions will be concentrated from mid-August to early September. The retail sales of the National Day will be significantly lower than in previous years.

In the second half of the year, the overall air-conditioner market will slow down. Zhongyi Kang expects retail sales to decline by 5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate will be above 13%. At the same time, in the battle between e-commerce giants, the online market will become bigger. In 2013, sales of air-conditioning products will reach 8 billion yuan, accounting for more than 6%. After the price of air-conditioning has risen for several consecutive years, the implementation of the new benchmark for energy efficiency in the second half of this year will have little effect on the price trend of air-conditioning products. Shi Ting said that the price of bulk raw materials is declining. At the same time, considering the range of consumer price tolerances for frequency conversion products, in the medium to long term, frequency conversion products will maintain a 30% to 40% spread with fixed-frequency products, and industry access thresholds will increase. Will help the industry regulate development.