Deep observation: How much artificial intelligence can make a difference in our lives?
"The ability of artificial intelligence to copy without cost and the ability to continue to evolve is unmatched by human beings." In the eyes of Hu Guoping, dean of the Institute of Science and Technology, the infinite charm of artificial intelligence is here. "Human intelligence cannot be copied." Even if you are the son of an English master, the words must be reciting themselves. This is the biggest obstacle to the progress of human wisdom." Unlike artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence is a technology, a kind of machine intelligence. Once a machine has 97% correct speech recognition rate, then all machines in the world can in principle have such a correct rate. No matter which company continues to develop the next generation of speech recognition technology, he must stand above the 97% indicator. The cost-free replication and continuous evolutionary ability are the great advantages of artificial intelligence relative to human intelligence. The main source of artificial intelligence threat theory, because artificial intelligence has evolved at least 10,000 times faster than humans.
Li Zhifei, the founder of "Going out to ask questions," is a Ph.D. in computer science at Johns Hopkins University, an expert in natural language processing and artificial intelligence. He was a Google developer and developed a machine translation open source software. In a way, this experience served as a stepping stone for Li Zhifei's return to China. "In October 2012, I returned to China from Silicon Valley Google headquarters. I am the first."
Someone asked him why he didn't stay in Silicon Valley. Li Zhifei said that he is more interested in the application of technology than the technological breakthrough itself, and "if in Silicon Valley, we may be slower."
After returning to China, Li Zhifeiâ€™s â€œgoing out of the doorâ€ quickly attracted the first financing. The WeChat public account, APP, etc. were all made without stopping, but Li Zhifei found that this was not what he wanted. After a period of confusion, Li Zhifei decided to do smart hardware. From the smart watch TIcwatch, he always asked the mirror TIcmirror and asked the magic eye TIceye. He said that in the past 12 months, it has been easy to go out and ask about 150 million yuan in revenue. In the next 12 months, it is likely to be 300 million yuan.
"You can imagine putting your mobile phone with data connection on the smart rearview mirror product, you can navigate, listen to music and do the driving recorder, and upgrade your car with minimal modification." Li Zhifei told him The intelligent car rearview mirror that is dedicated to the avatar is very confident in the "question mirror TIcmirror".
Li Zhifei's best is intelligent voice interaction technology, which makes the magic mirror Ticmirror easy to achieve voice fast word interaction, you can use the "hot word + command" sentence to complete the process from instruction to execution, do not need to say "you A good question to ask about the wake-up interaction, you can directly say "view the whole process", "3D mode" and other voice fast words, directly to the relevant functions. At the same time, the dialogue process can be interrupted at any time, and you can make new voice commands at any time while the mirror is playing music and voice announcements. In addition to voice, you can also wake up, listen to music, cut photos, take photos and more with simple gestures. If there is an emergency during the driving process, such as the distance between the car and the line, the mirror can also be intelligently prompted...
Artificial intelligence is called the third revolution in human history. The industrial revolution frees human beings from physical labor, information technology connects the world closely, and artificial intelligence is to take humans from heavy mental labor. Freed up. Artificial intelligence may be the last revolution that needs to be overcome by human wisdom.
In the view of Liu Qingfeng, the chairman of Keda Xunfei, the artificial intelligence stage has experienced three waves: in the period of computing intelligence, the machine can be saved; in the period of perceived intelligence, the vision and hearing of the machine can exceed the labor; the core of the future is cognitive intelligence. Cognitive computing with voice and language as the entrance is the only way for artificial intelligence. Science and Technology News has achieved world-renowned achievements in the field of cognitive computing, the core of artificial intelligence.
Liu Qingfeng believes that the third wave of artificial intelligence is based on the new development in the field of neural networks. Based on deep neural networks, the big data and cloud computing backgrounds are used as computing platforms. Based on the mobile Internet, various training data are continuously received in the background. "So we believe that with the current time node, the third wave of artificial intelligence has come true."
In March of this year, Alpha GO defeated Li Shishi because it had intensively studied before, and by playing against Li Shishi, its chess power was long. Some people laughed that the only way to make Alpha GO fail is to keep it under the bad chess. chess. Keda Xunfei is currently cooperating with the Examination Center of the Ministry of Education. In the future, it is expected to conduct machine marking. Liu Qingfeng said that as long as the machine has learned 500 volumes of experts, it can change hundreds of thousands of other documents, and the comprehensive performance has exceeded the artificial level. Not only is artificial intelligence useful in education, but in the medical industry, artificial intelligence is likely to surpass first-line general practitioners after learning the knowledge of top medical experts and existing medical cases; After the data, you can give reference and help to the judgment of the first-line judge.
It can be said that the deep learning ability of artificial intelligence is daunting, because after learning the expertise of top experts, they will reach the level of first-class experts in the future, and thus more than 90% of ordinary professionals. In October 2015, McKinsey had a report that 45% of current knowledge activities can be automated in the future. The judgement given by the American Science Journal earlier this year is that by 2045, 50% of jobs in the world may be replaced by artificial intelligence machines. China is 77%, that is, in the next 30 years, in China. Three out of every four jobs are replaced by artificial intelligence.
Nowadays, artificial intelligence has increasingly affected people's lives. For example, people no longer look at the sky at night, but use artificial intelligence technology such as weather forecasting. People used to remember the relevant addresses and routes, and now they use map navigation directly. It used to be accustomed to the Pinyin input method. Later, I used to use the handwriting input method. Now I am getting used to voice input. In the near future, humans can interact naturally through voice and cars, home appliances, and homes. Everyone has a virtual assistant, and people are becoming more and more accustomed to artificial intelligence.
Artificial intelligence can also affect housing prices?
Faced with the rapid development of artificial intelligence, some people worry that artificial intelligence will replace humans in the future. Li Zhifei, an artificial intelligence expert, believes that artificial intelligence can be achieved at the perceptual level of speech recognition and image recognition, but it is really difficult. It is understanding and thinking.
It is very difficult for human beings to create a machine that can think and even surpass people's IQ and let everyone work together. The big reason is that we have very little understanding of the principles of human thinking. Therefore, it is difficult to invent a sensor to digitize the brain's thinking activities.
â€œEven if you can digitize all your smart activities, today's storage, transmission, and computing bandwidth are not enough. You can imagine that today you take a photo and share it with your friends. This is a typical digital, transfer storage computing. Process. But if you want to digitize your day's visual activities, you need thousands of photos, and bandwidth is a problem at this time, let alone that vision is only a small part of human intelligence."
Imagine that we have countless ideas every day. If we digitize this information, it will require very powerful data processing capabilities. It is precisely because we don't know much about human thinking activities, we can't digitize these activities, and now the storage transfer calculations don't have enough bandwidth to handle these activities, so it's hard to make a machine that can be as human or even better. thinking ability. In addition to these underlying digital modeling, today's machines lack simple intuition and complex reasoning, so artificial intelligence is extremely remote in place of humans.
But artificial intelligence changes the lives of human beings is an indisputable fact. Some industry experts said that if the third wave of artificial intelligence really fell, it will definitely affect employment. In particular, junior job seekers in various knowledge positions may not be able to support their jobs, such as junior lawyers who help lawyers to organize file files, junior doctors who help surgeons to process patient information, and junior journalists who help the media write general manuscripts. Etc. These people were originally engaged in intellectual labor, but because their work may be replaced by artificial intelligence, these people may return to the ranks of manual workers or enter the service industry in the future.
Others are optimistic that in the future, with artificial intelligence, then humans can enjoy the blessings, go out to drive automatically, graduate exams with personal intelligence system, glasses automatically scan the questions, the phone automatically answers, the pen tip automatically writes the answer, will not how about this?
Wang Yuquan, an industry expert and investor, said that no matter how it changes, the distribution mechanism of human society will not change. If artificial intelligence does everything, then where does the income of the person come from? What makes money? Therefore, he believes that the development of artificial intelligence will cause further differentiation of human society. Those who master artificial intelligence will have more resources, and those who are conservative and conservative will not have food. In addition, in the face of the ordinary services provided by artificial intelligence, the proactive people will use the two hours saved by the automatic driving to learn to improve, and the inert people may waste these two hours, so that the two people in the future The ending may also be different.
There are also people with brains wide open, can the development of technology such as artificial intelligence reduce the price? Industry observer Li Zhiyong said that the development of science and technology is to help promote the more centralized city, or to let the city decentralize? If the answer is the former, then technology is the power to boost housing prices in the central region. If it is the latter, the development of technology is to stand on the opposite side of high housing prices. Until now, economic development has been promoting centralization. The more complete a local support, the more developed the economy; the more developed the economy, the more complete the support. It can be said that there is an inevitable connection between economic development, urban centralization and high housing prices.
But technology such as artificial intelligence seems to be on the opposite side of high housing prices. If artificial intelligence is really developed, then off-site office is possible, high-quality education is no longer dependent on the resources of teachers who are always under-supplied, and high-quality medical care will be untied. In that way, people can get jobs and high-quality social services such as education and medical care wherever they are, so why do he need to live in a place with high prices?
In Li Zhiyong's view, there are always two possibilities for the future population distribution: one is that the mega-cities are further expanded, while the third- and fourth-tier cities and villages are gradually disappearing. One is that the population is relatively evenly distributed, and everyone can find the place he likes, although it is far from the bustling, but also very convenient to live.
"At present, technology such as artificial intelligence seems to be on the latter side." Li Zhiyong said
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