Industry analysis: 2013 and global LED industry trends
Although the LED industry faced many development bottlenecks in 2012 and even shuffled on a large scale, the future development trend is still positive. Analysts of LEDinside, a research department of TrendForce, a global market research organization, based in Shenzhen sorted out trends in China and the global LED industry, providing in-depth analysis from the top ten aspects of LED patents, industrial reshuffle, chip overcapacity, major factory consolidation, and innovative talents.
Trend 1: Some LED patents expire, and LED packaging companies may welcome new opportunities
Currently, technology patents in the global LED industry have been firmly in the hands of Cree, Philips, Osram, Nichia Chemical and Toyota Synthesizer. These five major manufacturers have applied for a number of patents covering the entire industry chain covering raw materials, equipment, packaging, and applications. However, LEDinside observed that such patent walls have already shown signs of loosening. According to the provisions of the Patent Law, the protection period for invention patents is 20 years, and the protection period for utility model patents and design patents is 10 years, that is, the LED-related patents that have been proposed since 1990 have gradually expired from 2010, and this A considerable part of them also involves important white LEDs. In the next 2 to 3 years, a number of core patents of the 1990s will expire one after another. In addition, related patents related to phosphors will also gradually expire in 2012-2014.
However, the "copycat version" patents of the Chinese market company have hidden dangers-after careful study, most of the patents are not original, or picking people's wisdom, and make some repairs on the basis of the original patents of international LED giants; or opportunistic and practical. New design or appearance design. Once faced with a global lawsuit triggered by an international giant, more than 70% of patents in the Chinese market may become invalid.
Trend 2: LED lighting products have greater visibility in the general lighting market
LEDinside believes that the penetration rate of the LED lighting market will accelerate in 2013, due to the obvious impact of factors such as the decline in the price of LED lighting products, the maturity of technology, and the increase in market awareness of LED lighting products. Originally, when traditional lighting manufacturers developed new products, they began to introduce a large number of LED light sources to replace traditional light source products. Therefore, in the next two years, the penetration rate of LED lighting products in the general lighting market will increase rapidly, and penetrate into various lighting fields.
Trend 3: China's market failure and shuffle will be more
2013 is hailed as an important year for the expansion of the Chinese LED market. LEDinside predicts that the penetration rate of LED downlights and spotlights in the mainland market will exceed 30%, and the sales of the LED lighting industry may reach 1 billion yuan, but for excessive expansion For the LED industry, it is difficult for manufacturers to benefit from the oversupply of production capacity.
Especially in the past few years, because of the large number of Chinese LED epitaxial manufacturers established by government subsidies, LEDinside estimates that there will be fewer than 30 LED epitaxy factories in China in the next few years. Although mainland China's local MOCVD equipment manufacturers are also catching up, hoping to attack the MOCVD equipment market monopolized by foreign companies, but due to the large-scale shutdown of imported MOCVD equipment, these localized brand MOCVD equipment are difficult to show the stage; In addition, the strength gap of LED companies has gradually emerged. With the expansion of more large-scale LED packaging companies, some small and medium-sized packaging factories in the mainland with poor health will also face the crisis of failure.
Trend 4: LED chip prices keep falling, supply chain structure profits shrink
LEDinside believes that thanks to the growth in demand for handheld devices and LED lighting products, the global LED output value will reach US $ 12.4 billion in 2013, a 12% increase from 2012, but the overall LED industry's oversupply cannot be resolved in the short term.
The hot investment of companies outside the Chinese market in the Chinese LED industry chain and the continued ordering of MOCVD will undoubtedly increase the output and inventory of LED chips. In order to obtain benefits, the company will further reduce chip prices and implement a new round of price wars. Manufacturers The profit margin will also be further reduced. According to the latest market statistics, compared with the beginning of 2012, the price of LED upstream sapphire substrates and chips has dropped by more than one-third so far. The situation of China's LED structural overcapacity will continue in mid-2013, LED chip prices will further decline, the profitability of midstream and upstream companies will be reduced, and excess capacity will also promote the structural integration of the LED supply chain. Or infiltrate downstream for vertical and vertical integration.
Trend 5: lack of innovative talents, digging corners into shortcuts
LED epitaxial chips and other upstream talents in the industry chain are the most deficient. Taking MOCVD equipment as an example, the two companies VEECO and AIXTRON of Germany account for 90% to 95% of the global market share. Although Japanese equipment is also more advanced, it is basically for domestic use and rarely exported. Many mainland companies do not understand the actual situation, thinking that with the equipment, they can be directly put into production. After spending a lot of money to purchase equipment from the United States and Germany, it was discovered that there was a lack of knowledgeable and truly experienced personnel to debug and operate the equipment. It is not uncommon for these companies to have to dig up high salaries from companies in Taiwan and South Korea to relieve their urgent needs.
For the majority of companies, it is no exception to introduce talents by digging angles in order to solve the urgent need, but it must have a long-term perspective and overcome the mentality of quick success and quick gains. If there is no innovative soil and environment, even if talent is dug from the outside, it will be difficult to survive , Will gradually wither.
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